Key model input parameters
| Parameter | Value | Source |
| Unit costs | ||
| Procedure-related costs | ||
| Ablation procedure | £9779 | Derived from ablation HRG procedure cost and average list prices provided by Medtronic.8* |
| Intraoperative adverse event costs (per event) | ||
| Oesophageal injury | £26 733 | 8 |
| Cardiac tamponade | £2083 | |
| Pulmonary vein stenosis | £2777 | |
| Vascular complications | £1389 | |
| Persistent phrenic nerve injury | £325 | |
| Healthcare contact costs | ||
| CV-related hospitalisations (excluding reablation procedures) | £1362 | 38Weighted average: non-elective long and short stays: HRG EB07A to EB07E. |
| CV-related A&E department visits (excluding reablation procedures) | £332 | 38Weighted average: HRG VB01Z to VB09Z. |
| CV-related outpatient appointments (excluding reablation procedures) | £191 | 38Total outpatient attendance. Service code: 320—cardiology. |
| Pharmaceutical cardioversion | £1528 | 38Weighted average: HRG codes: EB07A-EB07E (day case). Consultant led; cardiology; currency code: WF01A |
| Electrical cardioversion | £1528 | |
| Atrial fibrillation adverse event costs (per cycle) | ||
| Non-disabling stroke | £2196 | 38Weighted average of currency codes AA35E and AA35F (stroke with CC score 0–3 and 4–6). |
| Moderately disabling stroke | £3622 | 38Weighted average of currency codes AA35C and AA35D (stroke with CC score 7–9 and 10–12). |
| Severely disabling stroke | £6812 | 38Weighted average of currency codes AA35A and AA35B (stroke with CC score 13–15 and 16+). |
| Stroke long-term cost | £293 | 39 |
| Heart failure (NYHA class I) | £125 | 40 |
| Heart failure (NYHA class II) | £159 | |
| Heart failure (NYHA class III) | £183 | |
| Heart failure (NYHA class IV) | £218 | |
| Pharmaceutical costs (per cycle) ** | ||
| Cryoablation arm | £38.37 | Derived from per cycle pharmaceutical costs weighted by resource use at 12 months. |
| AAD Arm | £48.69 | |
| Utility decrements | ||
| Health state decrements | ||
| LT-persistent | 0.08 | Assumption based on clinical expert opinion. |
| Permanent | 0.11 | 6 |
| Adverse event decrements | ||
| Non-disabling stroke—short-term | 0.00 | 41 |
| Moderately disabling stroke—short-term | 0.23 | |
| Severely disabling stroke—short-term | 0.60 | |
| Non-disabling stroke—long-term | 0.00 | |
| Moderately disabling stroke—long-term | 0.17 | |
| Severely disabling stroke—long-term | 0.35 | |
| Heart failure (NYHA class I)—long-term | 0.00 | 41 |
| Heart failure (NYHA class II)—long-term | 0.05 | 40 |
| Heart failure (NYHA class III)—long-term | 0.15 | |
| Heart failure (NYHA class IV)—long-term | 0.33 | |
*The ablation procedure cost calculation is detailed in the online supplemental material (section 1).
†The cited parameters include those that were not derived from analysis of the individual patient data.
‡The per cycle pharmaceutical cost calculations are detailed in the online supplemental material (section 2).
AAD, antiarrhythmic drug; LT, long-term; NYHA, New York Heart Association; ST, short-term.