Summary of average prediction performance with 95% CIs for models with expert-selected and all predictors
| Model | Time-dependent AUC (%) | Brier (%) | IPA (%) |
| Null model | 50.0 | 7.1 (5.4 to 8.8) | 0.0 |
| Expert selected | |||
| Random forest | 64.7 (62.7 to 66.7) | 7.0 (5.4 to 8.7) | 1.8 |
| Cause-specific Cox | 65.4 (63.5 to 67.4) | 7.0 (5.3 to 8.7) | 1.9 |
| All predictors | |||
| Random forest | 65.3 (63.2 to 67.3) | 7.0 (5.3 to 8.7) | 2.0 |
| Cause-specific Cox | 65.4 (63.5 to 67.4) | 7.0 (5.3 to 7.8) | 1.9 |
All predictors are listed in table 1.
AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; IPA, Index of Prediction Accuracy.