Table 2

Summary of average prediction performance with 95% CIs for subject matter selected models

ModelTime-dependent AUC (%)Brier (%)IPA (%)
Null model50.07.2 (5.3 to 9.0)0.0
Random forest64.2 (62.3 to 66.1)7.0 (5.2 to 8.9)1.7
Cause-specific Cox65.7 (63.9 to 67.5)7.0 (5.2 to 8.9)1.9
  • AUC, area under the curve; IPA, Index of Prediction Accuracy.