Table 5

Adjusted 1-year and 3-year HR or SHR (95% CI) for mortality and hospitalisation outcomes by the cardiovascular severity score category

Outcome	Training dataset				Validation dataset
Outcome	No severity	Low severity	Moderate severity	High severity	No severity	Low severity	Moderate severity	High severity
1-year all-cause mortality	Reference	1.49 (1.22 to 1.81)	3.03 (2.46 to 3.72)	5.64 (4.44 to 7.15)	Reference	1.25 (0.87 to 1.80)	2.62 (1.80 to 3.82)	4.76 (3.06 to 7.40)
1-year all-cause mortality	AUROC=0.7899				AUROC=0.7881
3-year all-cause mortality	Reference	1.40 (1.26 to 1.54)	2.90 (2.61 to 3.22)	5.34 (4.71 to 6.04)	Reference	1.20 (1.00 to 1.45)	2.17 (1.78 to 2.63)	4.63 (3.67 to 5.84)
3-year all-cause mortality	AUROC=0.7863				AUROC=0.7857
1-year CV/diabetes mortality	Reference	1.58 (1.06 to 2.35)	4.09 (2.73 to 6.11)	9.38 (6.04 to 14.54)	Reference	1.12 (0.58 to 2.18)	3.32 (1.69 to 6.49)	6.53 (3.05 to 13.97)
1-year CV/diabetes mortality	AUROC=0.8003				AUROC=0.7951
3-year CV/diabetes mortality	Reference	1.95 (1.53 to 2.48)	5.46 (4.28 to 6.96)	11.75 (9.00 to 15.33)	Reference	1.14 (0.78 to 1.68)	2.96 (2.00 to 4.38)	8.53 (5.54 to 13.12)
3-year CV/diabetes mortality	AUROC=0.8038				AUROC=0.7953
1-year any hospitalisation*	Reference	1.62 (1.57 to 1.67)	2.47 (2.38 to 2.56)	3.47 (3.27 to 3.68)	Reference	1.65 (1.55 to 1.76)	2.51 (2.33 to 2.70)	3.31 (2.94 to 3.73)
1-year any hospitalisation*	AIC=992 385.1				AIC=2 19 586.1
3-year any hospitalisation*	Reference	1.41 (1.38 to 1.44)	2.10 (2.04 to 2.15)	2.85 (2.73 to 2.99)	Reference	1.41 (1.35 to 1.47)	2.05 (1.95 to 2.15)	2.72 (2.48 to 2.97)
3-year any hospitalisation*	AIC=1 965 741				AIC=4 33 770.1
1-year CV/diabetes hospitalisation*	Reference	2.11 (2.02 to 2.20)	3.71 (3.54 to 3.89)	5.51 (5.15 to 5.91)	Reference	2.15 (1.98 to 2.34)	3.73 (3.39 to 4.10)	5.26 (4.59 to 6.04)
1-year CV/diabetes hospitalisation*	AIC=6 99 933.1				AIC=1 55 656.5
3-year CV/diabetes hospitalisation *	Reference	2.03 (1.97 to 2.10)	3.79 (3.66 to 3.92)	5.63 (5.34 to 5.92)	Reference	2.04 (1.92 to 2.17)	3.73 (3.48 to 4.00)	5.45 (4.93 to 6.03)
3-year CV/diabetes hospitalisation *	AIC=1 262 175				AIC=280 208.9

Severity score categories: no severity: score=0 (referent category); low severity: score=1–2; moderate severity: score=3–4; high severity: score ≥5.
All results are adjusted for age, gender, IMD and ethnicity (model 2).
*SHR: subhazard ratio estimated for the competing risk models for risk for hospitalisation.
AIC, Akaike information criterion; AUROC, area under a Receiver Operating Characteristics curve; CV, cardiovascular; IMD, index of multiple deprivation.