Summary of AIC and AUROCs of fitted Cox and Poisson regression models – training dataset
| Predictors/model | 1-year all-cause mortality | 1-year CV/diabetes-related mortality | Any-cause hospitalisation | 1-year CV/diabetes-related hospitalisation* | 1-year aggregated any hospitalisation or mortality | ||
| 1-year hospitalisation (single event)* | Recurrent event | Poisson† (count in first year) | |||||
| Demographics-only model | |||||||
| Model 1 | AUROC=0.7865 (AIC=43 050) | AUROC=0.7962 (AIC=13 382) | AIC=995 523 | AIC=2.27e+07 | AIC=477 990 | AIC=704 241 | AUROC=0.6055 (AIC=1 008 481) |
| Severity score+demographics models | |||||||
| Model 2 (model 1+ever before severity score) | AUROC=0.7912 (AIC=42 586.52) | AUROC=0.8030 (AIC=13 091.66) | AIC=992 032.8 | AIC=2.26e+07 | AIC=456 825 | AIC=699 582.5 | AUROC=0.6271 (AIC=1 004 865) |
| Model 3 (model 1+10-year severity score) | AUROC=0.7912 (AIC=42 649.12) | AUROC=0.8032 (AIC=13 133) | AIC=992 096.3 | AIC=2.26e+07 | AIC=457 753 | AIC=699 635 | AUROC=0.6270 (AIC=1 004 939) |
| Model 4 (model 1 + 5-year severity score) | AUROC=0.7910 (AIC=42 732.13) | AUROC=0.8024 (AIC=13 203.79) | AIC=992 244.2 | AIC=2.27e+07 | AIC=460 109 | AIC= 699 853.5 | AUROC=0.6265 (AIC=1 005 101) |
*Competing risk analysis.
†Adjusted for age, gender and IMD only.
AIC, Akaike information criterion; AUROC, area under a Receiver Operating Characteristics curve; CV, cardiovascular; DM, diabetes mellitus.