Table 2

Validation of CHARGE-AF, CHA2DS2-VASc and age alone as predictors for 5-year AF incidence among patients with complete baseline CHARGE-AF data (n=111 475)

CHARGE-AFCHA2DS2-VAScAge alone
All (n=111 475; 5264 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.736 (0.727 to 0.744)0.669 (0.661 to 0.677)0.716 (0.708 to 0.724)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)901.8 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.69 (0.67 to 0.71)
Age ≥65 years (n=60 528; 4356 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.646 (0.637 to 0.655)0.581 (0.572 to 0.590)0.615 (0.606 to 0.624)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)907.2 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.58 (0.54 to 0.61)
Age <65 years (n=50 947; 908 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.706 (0.686 to 0.725)0.543 (0.525 to 0.561)0.652 (0.633 to 0.671)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)38.8 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.93 (0.84 to 1.01)
Men (n=52 926; 2692 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.718 (0.707 to 0.729)0.672 (0.661 to 0.683)0.702 (0.691 to 0.713)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)542.7 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.65 (0.62 to 0.69)
Women (n=58 549; 2572 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.751 (0.740 to 0.763)0.706 (0.695 to 0.717)0.736 (0.724 to 0.750)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)381.6 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.72 (0.69 to 0.76)
CHA2DS2-VASc≥2 (n=88 538; 4866 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.711 (0.702 to 0.719)0.636 (0.628 to 0.644)0.688 (0.680 to 0.697)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)866.0 (p<0.001)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.66 (0.63 to 0.68)
CHA2DS2-VASc<2 (n=22 937; 398 AF cases)
C-statistic (95% CI)0.723 (0.694 to 0.752)0.521 (0.501 to 0.541)0.680 (0.649 to 0.707)
Nam-D’Agostino χ2 (p value)20.4 (p=0.02)
Calibration slope (95% CI)0.99 (0.86 to 1.12)
  • CHA2DS2-VASc, congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes and previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack, vascular disease and female sex category; CHARGE-AF, Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology model for atrial fibrillation.