Table 2

Model inputs for base-case analysis

Model inputAAD therapyAblation therapyDistributionData source
Probability of death per cycle0.839%0.814%BetaWeighted average of RCTs
Initial ablation operative mortalityn/a1%BetaRCTs
Pooled mean age6666n/aRCTs
Probability of transition to ‘readmission’ per cycle1.666%1.332%BetaWeighted average of RCTs
Probability of transition from ‘readmission’ to ‘repeat ablation’ per cycle25%19%BetaLarge registry
Cost of initial strategy£68£8124GammaInternal audit data, NHS and British National FormularyNF reference costs
Cost of maintenance of therapy per cycle*£49£10GammaRCT and British National Formulary
Cost of repeat ablation/switch to ablation £8176£8176GammaInternal audit data
Cost of readmission£2072£2072Gamma Retrospective cohort study, NHS reference costs
Utility at baseline0.7810.771BetaRCTs
Disutility of readmission−0.02−0.02BetaFrom review article and cohort study
Disutility of reablation−0.04−0.04BetaRegistry
Disutility of reablation with adverse event−0.13−0.13BetaRegistry, review article
Disutility of AAD with adverse event†−0.06−0.06BetaRCT
Discount3.5%3.5%n/aNICE
  • *Assume 20% of ablation arm also on amiodarone.

  • †Assume 1.29% rate per cycle of adverse event (AE). Costs are in UK sterling as of 2018.

  • AAD, antiarrhythmic drug; n/a, not applicable; NHS, National Health Service; NICE, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence; RCT, randomised clinical trial.