Table 3

Cox regression: multivariable subdistribution HRs

Total HF
HR (95% CI)
P valuesHFpEF
HR (95% CI)
P valuesHFrEF
HR (95% CI)
P valuesVHF
HR (95% CI)
P values
Age (per decade)1.9
(1.5 to 2.4)
<0.00012.3
(1.6 to 3.3)
<0.00011.6
(1.1 to 2.5)
0.019
Male gender3.1
(1.6 to 6.0)
0.0011
DBP
(per 10 mm Hg)
0.7
(0.5 to 0.9)
0.012
Log BMI (per doubling)5.7
(3.1 to 10.5)
<0.000125
(11 to 58)
<0.0001
Waist circumference (per 10 cm)1.29
(1.02 to 1.62)
0.035
Hypertension3.5
(1.4 to 8.8)
0.0068
Diabetes1.7
(1.2 to 2.3)
0.00463.1
(1.9 to 5.0)
<0.0001
Myocardial infarction1.6
(1.1 to 2.3)
0.00832.3
(1.4 to 3.8)
0.00191.9
(1.1 to 3.4)
0.029
AF3.3
(1.9 to 5.7)
<0.0001
OSA1.7
(1.1 to 2.7)
0.026
Current or former smoker1.42
(1.04 to 1.94)
0.027
Alcohol>2 drinks/day*2.7
(1.4 to 5.4)
0.0047
NT-proBNP quintile2.0
(1.7 to 2.3)
<0.00011.8
(1.4 to 2.3)
<0.00012.0
(1.5 to 2.6)
<0.00011.8
(1.3 to 2.4)
0.0003
Haemoglobin
(g/dL)
0.81
(0.68 to 0.97)
0.023
CCB0.56
(0.33 to 0.95)
0.031
C statistics†0.80
(0.78 to 0.81)
0.78
(0.50 to 0.85)
0.73
(0.66 to 0.79)
0.76
(0.72 to 0.79)
  • Multivariable HRs and 95% CIs for risk factors for total incident HF, HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF.

  • HRs were calculated using a semiparametric proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of competing risk.14

  • Median (IQR) determined by the bootstrap method.

  • *Refers to consumption of more than two standard drinks on any day.

  • †C statistics for each multivariable model were estimated for a follow-up of 5.5 years.

  • AF, atrial fibrillation; BMI, body mass index; CCB, calcium channel blocker; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; HF, heart failure; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; NT-proBNP, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; OSA, obstructive sleep apnoea; VHF, valvular heart failure; WCC, white cell count.