Total HF HR (95% CI) | P values | HFpEF HR (95% CI) | P values | HFrEF HR (95% CI) | P values | VHF HR (95% CI) | P values | |
Age (per decade) | 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4) | <0.0001 | 2.3 (1.6 to 3.3) | <0.0001 | 1.6 (1.1 to 2.5) | 0.019 | ||
Male gender | 3.1 (1.6 to 6.0) | 0.0011 | ||||||
DBP (per 10 mm Hg) | 0.7 (0.5 to 0.9) | 0.012 | ||||||
Log BMI (per doubling) | 5.7 (3.1 to 10.5) | <0.0001 | 25 (11 to 58) | <0.0001 | ||||
Waist circumference (per 10 cm) | 1.29 (1.02 to 1.62) | 0.035 | ||||||
Hypertension | 3.5 (1.4 to 8.8) | 0.0068 | ||||||
Diabetes | 1.7 (1.2 to 2.3) | 0.0046 | 3.1 (1.9 to 5.0) | <0.0001 | ||||
Myocardial infarction | 1.6 (1.1 to 2.3) | 0.0083 | 2.3 (1.4 to 3.8) | 0.0019 | 1.9 (1.1 to 3.4) | 0.029 | ||
AF | 3.3 (1.9 to 5.7) | <0.0001 | ||||||
OSA | 1.7 (1.1 to 2.7) | 0.026 | ||||||
Current or former smoker | 1.42 (1.04 to 1.94) | 0.027 | ||||||
Alcohol>2 drinks/day* | 2.7 (1.4 to 5.4) | 0.0047 | ||||||
NT-proBNP quintile | 2.0 (1.7 to 2.3) | <0.0001 | 1.8 (1.4 to 2.3) | <0.0001 | 2.0 (1.5 to 2.6) | <0.0001 | 1.8 (1.3 to 2.4) | 0.0003 |
Haemoglobin (g/dL) | 0.81 (0.68 to 0.97) | 0.023 | ||||||
CCB | 0.56 (0.33 to 0.95) | 0.031 | ||||||
C statistics† | 0.80 (0.78 to 0.81) | 0.78 (0.50 to 0.85) | 0.73 (0.66 to 0.79) | 0.76 (0.72 to 0.79) |
Multivariable HRs and 95% CIs for risk factors for total incident HF, HFpEF, HFrEF and VHF.
HRs were calculated using a semiparametric proportional hazards model for the subdistribution of competing risk.14
Median (IQR) determined by the bootstrap method.
*Refers to consumption of more than two standard drinks on any day.
†C statistics for each multivariable model were estimated for a follow-up of 5.5 years.
AF, atrial fibrillation; BMI, body mass index; CCB, calcium channel blocker; DBP, diastolic blood pressure; HF, heart failure; HFpEF, heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; HFrEF, heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; NT-proBNP, amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide; OSA, obstructive sleep apnoea; VHF, valvular heart failure; WCC, white cell count.