TY - JOUR T1 - Troponin and BNP are markers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure: the Caerphilly Prospective Study (CaPS) JF - Open Heart JO - Open Heart DO - 10.1136/openhrt-2017-000692 VL - 5 IS - 1 SP - e000692 AU - Christopher C Patterson AU - Stefan Blankenberg AU - Yoav Ben-Shlomo AU - Luke Heslop AU - Anthony Bayer AU - Gordon Lowe AU - Tanja Zeller AU - John Gallacher AU - Ian Young AU - John W G Yarnell Y1 - 2018/02/01 UR - http://openheart.bmj.com/content/5/1/e000692.abstract N2 - Objective To examine the long-term predictive value of 28 biomarkers for subsequent non-ischaemic congestive heart failure (CHF) and separately for other cardiovascular outcomes (myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke).Methods The Caerphilly Prospective Study recruited 2171 men aged 55–69 years from the general population in 1989–1993; men were screened for evidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and followed for clinical cardiovascular events. Fasting blood samples were stored at −70°C until assayed for novel biomarkers in 2010–2013. A competing risks proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate subhazard ratios (SHRs) for each biomarker for each cardiovascular outcome.Results During follow-up (average 13 years), only new, initial events were evaluated in the whole cohort: 584 MIs, 313 strokes and 261 episodes of CHF (not associated with acute MI). In a subcohort of men who had no clinical history or evidence of CVD at baseline examination (n=1279) those in the top third of the distributions of troponin and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) showed a threefold increase in risk for subsequent CHF as a first event after adjustment for all conventional risk factors (SHRs 3.37, 95% CI 1.39 to 8.14 and 3.23, 95% CI 1.45 to 7.23), respectively, in contrast to moderate elevations in risk for acute MI (troponin SHR 1.63, 95% CI 1.10 to 2.41) and for stroke (BNP SHR 1.75 95% CI 1.06 to 2.88).Conclusion Troponin and BNP could be considered as potentially useful screening tools to detect subjects without prior CVD at increased risk of developing CHF in subsequent years in addition to having lesser roles for predicting subsequent MI (troponin) or stroke (BNP). ER -