Comparison of the Framingham Risk Score, SCORE and WHO/ISH cardiovascular risk prediction models in an Asian population

Highlights

• Four cardiovascular risk prediction models were assessed in an Asian population.

• The WHO/ISH model performed poorly for cardiovascular risk stratification.

• The Framingham and SCORE models could stratify risk in Asian men and women.

• The SCORE-high model accurately predicted risk for men, but not women.

• The Framingham model stratified risk better than the SCORE models in women.

Abstract

Background

Cardiovascular risk-prediction models are used in clinical practice to identify and treat high-risk populations, and to communicate risk effectively. We assessed the validity and utility of four cardiovascular risk-prediction models in an Asian population of a middle-income country.

Methods

Data from a national population-based survey of 14,863 participants aged 40 to 65 years, with a follow-up duration of 73,277 person-years was used. The Framingham Risk Score (FRS), SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation)-high and -low cardiovascular-risk regions and the World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) models were assessed. The outcome of interest was 5-year cardiovascular mortality. Discrimination was assessed for all models and calibration for the SCORE models.

Results

Cardiovascular risk factors were highly prevalent; smoking 20%, obesity 32%, hypertension 55%, diabetes mellitus 18% and hypercholesterolemia 34%. The FRS and SCORE models showed good agreement in risk stratification. The FRS, SCORE-high and -low models showed good discrimination for cardiovascular mortality, areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were 0.768, 0.774 and 0.775 respectively. The WHO/ISH model showed poor discrimination, AUC = 0.613. Calibration of the SCORE-high model was graphically and statistically acceptable for men (χ² goodness-of-fit, p = 0.097). The SCORE-low model was statistically acceptable for men (χ² goodness-of-fit, p = 0.067). Both SCORE-models underestimated risk in women (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The FRS and SCORE-high models, but not the WHO/ISH model can be used to identify high cardiovascular risk in the Malaysian population. The SCORE-high model predicts risk accurately in men but underestimated it in women.