Evolving trends in the epidemiologic factors of heart failure: Rationale for preventive strategies and comprehensive disease management☆,☆☆,★,★★
Section snippets
INCIDENCE AND PREVALENCE OF CHF
Although it is often stated that there are 400,000 new cases of CHF each year in the United States and that as many as 4.7 million Americans and 15 million individuals worldwide have this condition, 8, 9, 10 these statistics are extrapolated from relatively small studies and depend on untested assumptions. More important, these figures are based on a very broad definition of heart failure. Many of these patients do not have the pathophysiologic characteristics and syndrome clinicians commonly
CAUSES OF CHF
Some controversy has occurred concerning the distribution of causes of CHF. Data are primarily available from two sources: the Framingham cohort study and the patient populations enrolled in major CHF treatment trials. These two sources each have strengths and weaknesses and are best viewed as providing complementary information. Because of the careful longitudinal follow-up in the Framingham study, the occurrence of prior hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and clinical coronary heart disease is
MORTALITY FROM CHF
CHF is a highly lethal condition. In 1991, 39,206 deaths were primarily attributed to heart failure, and CHF was listed as a contributory cause in approximately 250,000 deaths. More significantly, the number of deaths caused by heart failure has markedly risen during the past 4 decades, the same period during which coronary heart disease and stroke deaths have declined by 50%. Unadjusted mortality rates rose by 82.5% from 1979 to 1992, fourfold since 1968, and sixfold since 1955 (Fig. 3) 4, 8,
SURVIVAL RATES IN PATIENTS WITH CHF
In population-based studies, the survival rates of patients with CHF remain very poor. In the Framingham study period of 1948 to 1988, the median survival time after the diagnosis was 1.7 years in men and 3.2 years in women. 14 After 5 years, only 25% of men and 38% of women remained alive (Fig. 7) , and after 10 years these figures fell to 11% and 21%, respectively.
HOSPITALIZATIONS FOR CHF
Hospitalizations for CHF are perhaps the best marker of morbidity and the major determinant of the economic impact of this condition. In 1993, the last year for which statistics were available at the time this manuscript was prepared, there were 875,000 hospital discharges with CHF as the primary diagnosis and approximately 2.5 million discharges in which CHF was listed as an associated condition. 27 As with mortality, CHF hospitalizations have dramatically risen by 70% during the past decade (
COST OF CHF
The large number and often high complexity of hospitalizations for CHF make this diagnosis very costly. The average cost of hospitalization was estimated at $6429 in 1991. 39 Medicare alone spent $5.5 billion for hospitalizations, a total that not only exceeded the cost of hospitalizations for MI ($3.2 billion), but was twice the Medicare hospital expenditures for all forms of cancer. 40 Considering payments from all sources, the total cost of CHF hospitalizations has been estimated at $8
CAN THESE TRENDS BE REVERSED?
As with any epidemic, only preventative measures will likely have any substantial impact on these statistics. In that regard, "primary" prevention, which might be defined as treatment strategies to prevent CHF before the onset of left ventricular dysfunction or symptoms, offers the best opportunity (Table IV) . Not surprisingly, where tested, treatments that reduce the incidence of coronary heart disease and left ventricular dysfunction have been dramatically successful. Effective
SUMMARY
This review summarizes some of the most current information concerning the incidence and prevalence of CHF and the resulting morbidity and mortality of this condition. CHF clearly represents an enormous clinical problem and a major social and economic burden. The increase in the numbers of patients with CHF and CHF-related deaths is primarily driven by the aging of the population, but these trends persist even after age adjustment. The likely explanation for this pattern, which is unique among
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Supported in part by the Department of Veterans Affairs Research Service.
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Barry M. Massie, MD, Cardiology Section (111-C), Veterans Affairs Medical Center, 4150 Clement St., San Francisco, CA 94121.
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Am Heart J 1997;133:703-12.
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