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Original research article
Effects of disease severity distribution on the performance of quantitative diagnostic methods and proposal of a novel ‘V-plot’ methodology to display accuracy values
  1. Ricardo Petraco,
  2. Hakim-Moulay Dehbi,
  3. James P Howard,
  4. Matthew J Shun-Shin,
  5. Sayan Sen,
  6. Sukhjinder S Nijjer,
  7. Jamil Mayet,
  8. Justin E Davies and
  9. Darrel P Francis
  1. International Centre for Circulatory Health, National Heart and Lung Institute, Imperial College London and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Ricardo Petraco; ricardo.petraco{at}gmail.com

Abstract

Background Diagnostic accuracy is widely accepted by researchers and clinicians as an optimal expression of a test’s performance. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of disease severity distribution on values of diagnostic accuracy as well as propose a sample-independent methodology to calculate and display accuracy of diagnostic tests.

Methods and findings We evaluated the diagnostic relationship between two hypothetical methods to measure serum cholesterol (Cholrapid and Cholgold) by generating samples with statistical software and (1) keeping the numerical relationship between methods unchanged and (2) changing the distribution of cholesterol values. Metrics of categorical agreement were calculated (accuracy, sensitivity and specificity). Finally, a novel methodology to display and calculate accuracy values was presented (the V-plot of accuracies).

Conclusion No single value of diagnostic accuracy can be used to describe the relationship between tests, as accuracy is a metric heavily affected by the underlying sample distribution. Our novel proposed methodology, the V-plot of accuracies, can be used as a sample-independent measure of a test performance against a reference gold standard.

  • diagnostic accuracy
  • diagnostic tests
  • study sample

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt and build upon this work, for commercial use, provided the original work is properly cited. See: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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Footnotes

  • Contributors All authors contributed to the content of this study, including study design and critical review of final manuscript.

  • Funding RP is an NIHR Walport Clinical Lecturer and British Heart Foundation fellow (FS/11/46/28861). DPF (FS 04/079) is a British Heart Foundation fellow.

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Data sharing statement There are no additional data available for this article.